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光伏組件需求有望得到釋放,推動產能利用率回升

核心數據:

2023年,中國的光伏元件供應量占到全球總供應量的86%,出口量占到產量的42%。2020-23年期間中國光伏元件出口量增長了1.9倍,在中國以外地區的市場份額從2020年的67%上升至2023年的72%。49%的出口產品銷往美國和歐盟。2023年,中國光伏元件產能約等於國內需求量的 4 倍,全球需求量的 2 倍,產能利用率 44%。國內光伏組件生產成本比海外同業低 30%-60%。

觀點:

需求方面,9月美聯儲正式開減息週期,光伏系統成本及均化能源成本顯著下降,光伏發電項目的投資回報率提升。隨著加息週期結束、組件價格觸底,前期因加息預期、組件快速跌價而觀望的需求有望得到釋放,預計需求可持續性將推動產能利用率回升。建議關注個股:通威股份(600438.SH)、福萊特(601865.SH)、晶澳科技(002459.SZ)、天合光能(688599.SH)、陽光電源(300274.SZ)、隆基綠能(601012.SH)、晶科能源(688223.SH)、福斯特等(603806.SH) 。

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