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風電行業市場分析:風電招標量大幅增長 看好2025年風電行業高景氣度

風電,顧名思義,是借助風能發電,國家能源局資料顯示,2024年,全國風電新增裝機容量7982萬千瓦,同比增長6%,其中陸上風電7579萬千瓦,海上風電404萬千瓦。從新增裝機分佈看,“三北”地區占全國新增裝機的75%。截至2024年12月,全國風電累計並網容量達到5.21億千瓦,同比增長18%,其中陸上風電4.8億千瓦,海上風電4127萬千瓦。2024年,全國風電發電量9916億千瓦時,同比增長16%;全國風電平均利用率95.9%。風電目前已經成為除火電外的中國第二大電力來源,GWEC資料顯示,2023年,全球風電新增裝機容量為116.6GW;其中陸上風電新增裝機容量為105.8GW,海上風電新增裝機容量達10.9GW。中國新增裝機容量達75GW,創下新紀錄,占全球新增裝機容量的近65%。風電在2030年要達到碳達峰和碳中和,所以風電行業未來仍存增長空間。

金風科技2024三季度業績報告顯示,截止2024年9月30日,國內公開招標市場新增招標量119.1GW ,同比大幅增長了93.0%,其中陸上新增招標容量111.5GW,海上新增招標容量7.6GW。2025年國內風電裝機量有望大幅提升,海外各國發佈政策增加海風裝機量,我們看好海外海上風電裝機需求。近年來,國家發展改革委、國家能源局等相關部門不斷出臺政策支持風電行業的發展,推動各地建設風力發電基礎設施。海上風電成為發展重點,國家能源局提出穩步推進大型風電光伏基地建設,有序推動項目建成投產。

風電行業的發展將為相關產業鏈帶來投資機遇,風電產業鏈上游包括鋼材、玻璃纖維等原材料及葉片、塔筒等零部件製造;中游為整機製造,呈現頭部企業集中趨勢;下游應用則聚焦電力就地消納,覆蓋農村用電、工業園供電及農業灌溉等領域。海上風電、葉片製造、塔架管樁和海纜等環節值得留意,上述企業有望在技術進步和市場需求的推動下實現業績快速增長。建議關注個股:金風科技(2208.HK)、明陽智能(601615.CH)、日月股份(603218.CH)、中材科技(002080.CH)、時代新材(600458.CH)以及中國高速傳動(0658.HK)。

撰稿: 李曉然研究分析員
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