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馮兆山先生(Michael Fung)
經理

現任職輝立經理,對投資股票、期權經驗豐富。本人樂意為客戶提供投資分析及買賣策略。歡迎各位來電交流心得。
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中國平安保險(集團)股份有限公司 (2318.HK) 估值處低位

Wednesday, April 27, 2022 Views7545

# 中國平安 (2318.HK) 估值處低位

 

  • 中國平安公布2021年度業績,錄得純利1016.18億人民幣,按年下跌29%,每股基本營運收益按年漲6.5% 至8.4元人民幣,派末期息 1.5元人民幣。

  • 期內,總收入1.29萬億元人民幣,較去年減少約300億元人民幣。

  • 中國平安的現有代理流失量大,新入職的代理量少,令淨代理人數連續第三年出現倒退,由2018年高峰的142萬人,減至目前的60萬人。預計今年代理人數仍會進一步回落。

  • 壽險及健康險業務的內涵價值為8764.9億元人民幣,按年升約6.3%。

  • 新業務價值為378.98億元人民幣,較去年495.75億元人民幣減少23.55%。原因是受到儲蓄型產品佔比上升導致新業務價值率下滑,以及公司堅持高質量人力發展,轉型期間代理人數下滑的雙重影響。新業務價值增長壓力仍大,今年仍不容樂觀。

  • 中國平安指出,去年對華夏幸福相關投資資產減值計提、估值調整及權益法損益調整金額,合計為432億元人民幣。對稅後純利影響為243億元人民幣,對稅後營運利潤影響則為73億元人民幣。

  • 公司管理層展望,2022年是中國平安價值文化升級的關鍵年份,在保險業務方面,持續推進壽險改革,借助科技賦能,推動渠道轉型、打造「有溫度的保險」。銀行業務方面積極助力構建以國內大循環為主體、國內國際雙循環相互促進的新發展格局。資產管理業務方面將致力於打造行業領先的投資管理平台。

  • [投資策略] = 去年,宏觀經濟和國內外形勢複雜多變,新冠肺炎疫情影響依然持續,壽險改草伋艱難進行,加上投資內房「華夏幸福」的減值損失,令中國平安純利有所倒退。然而,中國平安股價自歷史高位下跌逾半,估值處於低水平,投資價值亦開始浮現,建議投資者可於低位作吸納持有。

  • [估值] = 估值每股89.5港,主要因為降低了集團未來新業務價值預期及集團聯營公司市值下降所致。若以2022年4月26日收市價49.35港元計算,理論潛在升幅約為81.4%。

 

  • [買入價] = 看圖睇勢,中國平安的月線圖自2018年開始,股價每逄跌穿50港元水平,便迅速重回月線圖SMA(100) 平均線之上 – 目前SMA(100) 為53.79港元。

    再看周線圖,自2019年9月份開始,曾三次跌穿50港元水平,低位分別為:2021年9月21日低位 = 49港元;2021年10月5日低位 = 48.8港元;2022年3月15日低位 = 45.8港元。

    我們可分三注作出吸納,第一注為49港元,第二注為48.8港元,第三注為45.8港元。上望目標價為周線圖 SMA(20) 平均線的59港元。止蝕位訂為43.5港元。

 

本人馮兆山為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之證券的所有相關財務權益.

 

I, Michael Fung, am a licensed person under the Securities and Futures Commission. Until the date this commentary was published, neither I and/or my affiliates are the beneficiary of the securities mentioned herein or are entitled to any financial interests in relation thereto.


 

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