Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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政策利好或暫告一段落

Monday, March 10, 2025 Views1165

港股上周完成短期調整後重展升勢,恆指在上周二最低見到22547,之後連升三日,並再次突破24000,周五最高見到24669,創三年高位,收報24231,相對前周上升1290點,升幅5.6%;國指上周五收報8914,按周上升5.9%;科指收報6037,周升幅達8.4%,創四周最大升幅。滬深股市上周也造好,上證指數上周五曾逼近3400,高見3390,收報3372,全周上升1.6%。深成指逼近11000,上周五高見10931,收報10843,按周上升2.2%。全國兩會上周召開,政府工作報告定出今年國內生產總值目標增長為5%左右,加上官方和財新中國採購經理指數均優於預期,為股市帶來利好刺激。

中國政府工作報告還提到,今年赤字率擬按4%左右安排,比上年提高1個百分點,赤字規模5.66萬億元人民幣,比上年增加1.6萬億元。另外,今年擬發行超長期特別國債1.3萬億,比上年增加3000億元。並擬安排地方政府專項債券4.4萬億元,重點用於投資建設、土地收儲和收購存量商品房、消化地方政府拖欠企業賬款等。

美股方面,受特朗普關稅政策一日一版本,為市場帶來不確定性,納指上周四曾跌近18000,自2月中高位累跌近11%,落入技術調整區間,周五反彈回升127點至18196,但總結一周仍下跌3.45%。道指上周五收報42801,按周下跌2.4%。標普500指數收報5770,按周下跌3.1%,是自2024年9月以來的最大單周跌幅。經濟數據方面,俗稱小非農的2月ADP就業人數僅增加7.7萬人,遠低於預期的14.6萬人及1月的18.6萬人,創去年7月以來最小增幅。至於2月非農就業人數為15.1萬人,較1月下修後的12.5萬人增長有所加快,失業率小幅升至4.1%。但貿易政策的不確定性增加以及美國聯邦政府大幅裁員可能在未來幾個月反映於勞動市場上。事實上,人力資源機構Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. 的數據顯示,美國僱主2月裁員達172017人,按月升近2.5倍,按年升1倍,為2020年7月以來最高。其他經濟數據如ISM製造業指數也遜於預期,如果關稅持續,可能導致美國經濟增長停滯、物價上漲,陷入滯脹困境,經濟衰退機率將大增。因此,本周公布的CPI和PPI通脹數據將受到關注。

個人兩周前提出股市東升西降的論點,現在看來是正確的。全國兩會本周閉幕,政策利好或暫告一段落,市場將聚焦公司業績,估計恆指會在24000水平整固,或伺機補回上周四上升裂口的一部分。該上升裂口濶350點,介於23637和23987之間。

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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