Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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恆指往上目標21350/21740

Monday, February 10, 2025 Views690

上周評論指出,恆指突破20200後,料可上試20500,而下一阻力位將為21000,此亦為去年12月高位。結果恆指在上周五成功突破21000,最高見到21214,收報21134,而且成交增至2463億元。總結一周,恆指上升了909點或4.5%,是連續第四周上升。國指和科指亦連升四周,周升幅分別達到5.4%和9%。滬深兩市上周五成交亦見放量,達19602億元人民幣,上證指數和深成指分別收報3303和10576。

經濟數據方面,1月財新中國製造業採購經理指數(PMI)錄得50.1,低於上月0.4個百分點,降至近四個月來最低,主要由於春節前後生產進入淡季。1月財新中國服務業PMI降至51,低於上月1.2個百分點,為去年10月以來最低,亦低於預期的52.4。兩大行業景氣度走弱,拖累當月財新中國綜合PMI回落0.3個百分點至51.1。

特朗普表示,計劃這個星期宣布對多個國家實施對等關稅,意味貿易戰將進一步升級。近期港股和滬深股市熱炒DeepSeek AI、智能駕駛、機器人等概念,似乎蓋過了貿易戰的陰霾。

美股卻受到貿易戰和經濟數據欠佳影響,道指和納指上周都跌逾0.5%,標普500指數則跌逾0.2%。經濟數據方面,2024年12月JOLTS職位空缺為760萬份,遠低於預期的800份,前值為809.8萬份。最新一周首次申領失業救濟金人數由前周的20.8萬回升至21.9萬,高於預期的21.7萬。1月非農職位增加14.7萬,遠低於前值上修後的30.7萬,也低於預期的17萬。上述數據反映美國勞動市場有放緩跡象。另一方面,消費信心也有所轉弱,2月密歇根大學消費者信心指數初值為67.8,遠低於預期的71.9和1月的71.1。其中,美國消費者未來一年和未來五年通脹預期分別升至4.3%和3.3%,反映消費者擔心關稅會推高通脹。本周公布的消費者物價指數(CPI)和生產者物價指數(PPI)將受到關注。此外,本周還有零售銷售和工業生產等數據。

企業業績方面,本周將有77家標普500公司公布業績,包括可口可樂、麥當勞、思科等。目前標普500指數成分股已有超過一半公司公布了去年第四季業績,平均利潤較上年同期增長12.7%,高於1月初預計的9.6%。

說回港股,恆指突破了去12月10日高位21070,下一目標料可上試21350,再往上目標為21740,回落支持為20800,再下一級支持為20500。


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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