Market Brief

The articles are produced in Chinese only.

Author

區良鍵先生(George Au)
業務副董事

工商管理(財務系)畢業, 有十多年投資經驗, 經歷過股災及大大小小的升/跌市. 善於配合基礎因素及技術分析, 整合不同投資工具, 在不同市況下作出相應投資決定. 熟悉本地投資市場, 尤精於股票期權、指數期權及期貨投資.
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3925 9237

假如看錯市況 應該如何應對?

Wednesday, July 31, 2024 Views1656

今年5月開始為財經雜誌<經濟一週>撰文,因週刊特性,只是間中分享對後市看法,但命中率也不錯。 

其它撰文內容包括一些期權小技巧,大家感興趣的話可以看看。 

 

撇除第2225期,其餘幾期分享的潛在策略也能獲利。第2225期提及聯想(00992)7月到期的Short Put。如以7月結算價計,出現輕微損失。

 

這也是投資最大的問題,世上没有百份百準確的預測,如看法出錯,如何調整策略,減少損失,甚至嘗試憑新市況反敗為勝?

下方先展示兩個潛在做法。

 

(12/8我在金鐘的講座會有更多例子, 有興趣可以報名)

https://www.poems.com.hk/zh-hk/education-center/courses/?sp=leungkinau <- 報名

 

 

期權應市策略

(例子一)

 

在第2225期經濟一週(2024年6月22日出版)提過聯想(00992)這股票,7月Short行使價10.5元Put,收0.4元期權金的潛在策略。 7月24日仍有輕微帳面利潤。

但如以7月30日結算價計,每股損失0.08元。

 

較簡單的應對方法:假如對聯想(00992)看法不變,認為股價在10元附近也算吸引,可以靜觀其變不作平倉,等對方行使期權。

自己要用行使價10.5元接貨,但計及開倉Short Put時收到的0.4元期權金,平均買入價只是10.1元。聯想這股票7月31日除淨,派息0.3元。

7月31日聯想(00992)中午收市價9.99元,計及可收取股息,當時沽出將得到10.29元一股。結算接貨之後一日,便錄得利潤。

 

 

(例子二)

 

7月中開始,恆指走勢向下,但跌至17000附近,港股已重新變得吸引。

7月30日在YouTube分享了騰訊(00700)的潛在撈貨策略,雖然當時提及的策略,最大潛在損失有限,但如果看法出錯,多少要面對跌市風險。

如擔心港股繼續下跌,也可考慮如下策略。

 

Long 1張恆指8月行使價17000 Put,同時Short 2張恆指8月行使價16500 Put,7月31日上午要淨付約20點期權金一套。

簡單一些,先不考慮這20點左右的期權金,以8月結算價計,恆指在16000-17000點結算,投資者都有盈利,最大潛在利潤可達500點一套。

如低於16000點結算,將出現虧損。比16000點每低1點,將多1點損失。

 

個人目前認為港股再跌空間不大,要跌穿16000點才出現虧損,風險應可接受。

至於這組合要淨付出期權金,這視乎開倉時機。7月25日向客戶提及這策略時,更可收取少量期權金,說不定未來數日,做這組合也不用淨付期權金。

即使要淨付期權金,約20點一套成本也不多,升市也不會出現太大損失。

 

把這策略配合其它跌市時會出現有限損失的部署,例如YouTube提及的騰訊策略,如8月港股繼續下跌,但跌幅不大,不跌穿16000點,新策略的盈利隨時能彌補其它策略有限損失。

 

 

<最新一期YouTube:輝常策略Live 125

a)觀眾可看到更多期權潛在策略

b) 更多之前策略的效益展示

 

連結:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIkpnTqZAFQ <- 觀看

 

 

1. 資產價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕.

2. 期權/期貨有槓桿效應, 可以放大潛在嬴輸. 任何時間都要滿足按金要求, 否則有機會被強制平倉. 部份策略最大潛在損失可以是無限.

 

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