Market Brief

The articles are produced in Chinese only.

Author

區良鍵先生(George Au)
業務副董事

工商管理(財務系)畢業, 有十多年投資經驗, 經歷過股災及大大小小的升/跌市. 善於配合基礎因素及技術分析, 整合不同投資工具, 在不同市況下作出相應投資決定. 熟悉本地投資市場, 尤精於股票期權、指數期權及期貨投資.
Phone:
3925 9237

現在牛一? 小米(1810), 途虎(9690) 後市分析

Thursday, May 9, 2024 Views3537

單從小米(1810), 途虎(9690) 過去2個月走勢, 真有點牛市的感覺.

當然! 以1, 2隻股票,  判斷是否牛市, 是十分危機的事. 這2隻股票, 有它們上升的獨特原因.

 

A) 小米(1810)

 

賣點:

- 首季智能手機市佔率增加至14%

- ⁠有大行預期毛利率可增3.3%

- ⁠新能源車 Su7 熱賣

 

預測:

股價昨日曾突破$19

短線有機會上試 >$20

 

潛在部署:

i) 如有正股, 可考慮繼續持有

 

ii) Long 5月行使價$20 Call (<$0.5/股)

今早這Call Option 期權金曾見 <$0.5, 以上是 ~2:50PM 截圖, Call Option 約值 $0.54/股

 

$0.5/股, 並不算便宜, >$0.5/股 甚至有些少貴.

但考慮到小米(1810)的潛在爆發力, 不至於完全不能接受.

如認同小米(1810)有機會繼續突破, 可以考慮.

 

(如早前從其它投資賺到利潤, 從中抽取部份利潤 Long 小米 Call, 或較安心)

(Long Call 最大潛在損失有限, 用這方法, 最壞情況, 只是之前的利潤, 有所減少)

 

 

 

B) 途虎(9690)

 

途虎(9690)股價, 或向 $30邁進

之前主要在課堂 及 YouTube提及此股. 首次提及時, 股價: $13.7.

目標價: $18 - $21

 

26/4 股價突破 $21, 並以大陽燭抽升

以下是主要原因

 

 股東(富達)增持

途虎在 2月底-3月初急跌, 或因市場顧慮它的解禁股遭拋售

富達在途虎上市前已持有集團股票

富達既没有沽貨, 更加增持集團股票

作為知名投資機構, 富達的實際行動, 增加了市場對途虎的信心

 

 

富達的行動, 足以支持股價突破 $21後, 觸及 $24水平.

而途虎業務表現良好, 行業發展亦對其有利. 車企的減價戰, 原則上對途虎没有負面影響.

相反, 隨時因為汽車銷售的減價戰, 間接增加了其它汽車服務的需求.

集團主要通過 (途虎養車)app, 網站及微信小程序, 在中國提供包括: 輪胎和底盤零部件更換, 汽車保養、維修、汽車美容等服務.

 

過去2日, 股價從$24水平, 進一步攀升至$27. 如股價能企穩 $27, 或有機會上試 $30水平.

如股價回落:

 

個人看法:

$21 有強勁支持

$24 支持力度不大, 但不算貴

 

如對途虎後市走勢有信心, 可考慮視乎個人情況, 衡量是否 $24-27.5 買入.

 

 

 

C) 恆指 + 個別股票預測

 

關於恆指是否在牛一階段, 未來走勢預測, 以及對其它個股的分析, 可參看 5月7日, 上傳 YouTube 的 輝常策略 Live 113.

當日提及個別股票, e.g. 聯想(992), 在 5月9日(今日) 也有亮麗表現.

 

 

(輝常策略 Live 113)

(現在係牛一? 應該買貨定係點?)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXd4KVCpExY

 

 

D) 現場分享

 

13/5(週一), 將在金鐘統一中心, 舉辦一場實體分享班.

當日將分享更多, 因時間 /篇幅, 未能在 YouTube/網頁 分享的內容.

可點擊以下連結

https://www.poems.com.hk/zh-hk/education-center/courses/?cid=N202405006  <- 報名

或致電 2277 6536 報名.

 

 

1. 資產價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕.

2. 期權/期貨有槓桿效應, 可以放大潛在嬴輸. 任何時間都要滿足按金要求, 否則有機會被強制平倉. 部份策略最大潛在損失可以是無限.

 

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