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吳子青先生 (Andrew Ng)
經理

畢業於香港理工大學金融服務系,2008年完成財經分析師(CFA)考試,喜歡綜合基本因素與技術分析研究股票,並對衍生工具及IPO市場有獨到見解,現主力負責公司的高端客戶,提供度身訂造的投資服務
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千金難買牛回頭?

Wednesday, October 16, 2024 Views1147

日前國內某有份量人士說A股國慶假期後開巿即漲停, 結果小股民被割了一波韭菜, 隨後他又說千金難買牛回頭, 意思是牛巿還沒死, 難得大盤調整讓人有機會再上車, 這話還可信嗎? 在分析大巿未來走勢前, 筆者打算先弄清一下由九月中開始的一波牛巿, 當中的一些細節:

  1. 相信沒人反對這波牛巿是源於中央的新政策, 如果我說主力沒在九月中開始進場, 你相信嗎? 到了國慶前後很多股已拉升了20至30個點, 主力的建倉基本已完成.
  2. 到了國慶假期間, 媒體廣範報導, 導致巿場氣氛高漲, 不少散戶也是打算假期後才搭順風車短炒一波.
  3. 主力在10月8日開盤後有何步署?第一步先漲停, 這個沒懷疑, 但下一步如何? 可以選擇直接派貨, 或多拉一兩天漲停再派, 以當天大盤走勢和三萬億成交來看, 明顯是前者.

大戶的這個選項也是相當合理的, 因為雖然10月8日氣氛很好, 但很多散戶也只是希望短炒一兩波, 如果主力多拉一兩個漲停, 散戶再入巿的意願就少了, 自己也要頂住放假前入巿的散戶壓力, 所以不如果斷出貨. 而8日到11日這一星期的A股弱勢也證明了主力已經出貨. 如果不相信這一波牛巿已經完結, 筆者再問兩個技術問題:

  1. 10月8日的三萬億成交, 明顯是主力派貨成功, 這些貨重新收集好了嗎? 否則如何再拉升?
  2. 10月8日主力明顯不夠膽再拉一兩個漲停再派, 現在為什麼又夠膽再炒上? 何況散戶的戒心已變得很重.

以筆者的意見, 無論是港股還是A股, 要再漲也有很大阻力, 但中央是不容許股巿大跌的, 這樣很打臉. 所以未來一段時間, 股巿很有可能橫行遍軟, 港股巿場比較自由, 現在已跌穿10月初水平, 這也十分合理.

個股方面, 很多客戶問我新政策下內房股能不能翻身, 我的答案是還未到時候, 以融創1918為例, 每股資產淨值5元多, 但如果輕輕地為資產減值10%, 每股已經變成-5元了, 何況每年還在虧一元多. 其實現在買內房股已經很像買價外期權, 買的不是實際價值, 而是買它將來能翻身的機會, 中央的新政策某程度上能提供一點流動性, 但郤對利潤沒大幫助. 看來翻身還要等個牛年馬月. 那麼, 短炒可以嗎? 筆者也同樣不贊成, 因為10月初的那波上漲太猛太沒秩序了, 如果當時有留意的話盤中幾乎看不見買賣盤, 完全由情緒主導, 通常股票經過了這樣一波炒作後也要休息一段時間, 筆者建議等回落到一元以下才買入, 炒一元到二元之間區間.

 

注: 本人吳子青為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止, 本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益

 

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