Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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後續走勢看伊朗反應

Monday, June 23, 2025 Views180

上周中東緊張局勢升級,恒生指數失守24000點關,周二至周四連跌三天,累跌823點或3.4%,周五因美國總統特朗普稱兩周內決定是否攻擊伊朗,美股期貨反彈,也帶動港股反彈,恆指收報23,530點,較上日升292點或1.3%,但相對前周仍下跌了363點,跌幅1.5%;國指上周也下跌1.5%;恒生科技指數按周下跌2%,是連跌第二周。


上證指數和深成指按周分別下跌0.5%和1.15%。內地6月一年及五年期LPR維持不變符合預期;中國宏觀經濟數據「兩好兩壞」,5月份社會消費品零售總額按年增長6.4%,遠高於市場預期增4.9%。其中,除汽車以外的消費品零售額增長7%。5月份,全國城鎮調查失業率為5%,比4月下降0.1個百分點,並低於市場預期的5.1%。不過,首五月全國固定資產投資按年增3.7% ,低於市場預期升4%。5月份規模以上工業增加值按年實際增長5.8%,低於市場預期增6%。國家統計局表示,5月份隨著政策組合效應持續釋放,穩經濟促發展效果顯現,國民經濟保持總體平穩、穩中有進發展態勢,但也要看到,外部不穩定不確定因素較多,國內需求擴大內生動能尚需增強,經濟持續回升向好基礎仍需穩固。


美股上周變動亦不大,道指按周微升9點, 標普500指數則微跌9點,納指全個星期計升了40點。

聯儲局一如預期,維持利率於4.25至4.5厘不變。

聯儲局主席鮑威爾於記者會指出,最不確定的因素仍是關稅,他預計關稅推高價格並影響經濟活動,影響規模、持續時間及傳導時間不確定。他認為失業率維持低位(4.2%),勞動市場接近最大就業,新增職位放緩,但無顯著鬆弛,工資增長健康,當前經濟穩固,允許聯儲局觀察關稅影響和勞動市場數據,故暫時不調整利率。經濟數據方面,5月美國零售銷售按月下降0.9%,為四個月以來最大的降幅,因為消費者在關稅政策下縮減購買。跌幅大於市場預測的0.7%,4月經下修下降0.1%。5月美國工業生產下降0.2%,未達到市場預期的0.1%增長,而4月增長0.1%。另外,截至6月14日止一周,美國的初次失業救濟申請數減少5,000,比前一周降至24.5萬人,符合市場預期,但仍然是自2023年8月以來的第五高水平。


回到港股,恆指上周失守10天和20天移動平均線,上周四最低見到23185,補回6月3日介於23163和23281之間的上升裂口的大部分。周末期間,美國總統特朗普在社交媒體發文說,美國完成打擊伊朗福爾多、納坦茲和伊斯法罕三處核設施。接下來會怎樣?伊朗官方曾發出嚴厲警告,如果美國參與衝突,將危及「美國在中東的利益」。不過,暫時仍未見到伊朗的反擊,但伊朗議會已得出結論,認為應關閉霍爾木茲海峽,但最終決定權在伊朗最高國家安全委員會手中。霍爾木茲海峽位於阿曼和伊朗之間,連接了東部的阿曼灣和西部的波斯灣,是海灣地區石油輸往世界各地的唯一海上通道,全球約三分之一的海運原油貿易都要途經霍爾木茲海峽。若然被封鎖,可能令油價飆升至120美元以上,刺激通脹上升,對金融市場帶來衝擊。港股可能因應美國會否介入的短期不明朗因素消除而回穩,恆指或可繼續反彈回試20天線(23700)的阻力,但後續走勢端視伊朗會否對美國作出反擊行動或封鎖霍爾木茲海峽。


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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