Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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回補上升裂口及考驗23000

Monday, March 31, 2025 Views492

上周評論指出,恆指多次上破24000都未能企穩其上,9天相對強弱指數(RSI)已現多頂背馳,10天和20天移動平均線亦相繼失守,短期繼續下行機會較大,往下支持位看23200,回升阻力位24000。港股上周呈現反覆下行態勢,恆指在上周一最高見到23968,周五最低跌至23254,收報23427,相對前周下跌263點,跌幅1.1%。國指和科指按周分別下跌1.5%和2.4%。三大指數都連跌三周。消息面方面,國務院李強在北京出席中國發展高層論壇時表示,將進一步加大逆周期調節力度,必要時推出新的增量政策。人民銀行副局長宣昌能在博鰲亞洲論壇的分論壇上致詞時表示,會因應國內外經濟金融形勢,在合適的時機減息降率。另外,中國商務部表示將推出120餘項促消費活動,一度為餐飲消費股帶刺激。

美股上周亦呈現偏軟格局,總統特朗普宣布加徵汽車關稅,加上經濟數據疲弱,為美股帶來沽壓。總結一周,三大指數都下跌,道指和標普500指數按周分別下跌1%和1.5%。納指周跌幅達2.6%,今月以來跌幅超過8%,是2022年底以來最差表現。經濟數據方面,2月個人消費開支(PCE)物價指數按年升2.5%,與1月升幅相同並符合預期,但扣除食物和能源的核心指數升幅上升至2.8%,較市場預期的2.7%為高。另一方面,密歇根大學3月消費者信心指數從2月的64.7降至57的逾兩年低點,較初值57.9有所回落。消費者預計未來5到10年的年通脹率為4.1%,為1993年2月以來最高。對未來一年通脹預期為5%,創2022年以來最高水平,數據反映消費能力和信心驟降之餘,通脹仍然高企,引發巿場對滯脹以至衰退的憂慮。本周將公布的數包括3月ISM製造業與非製造業指數、工厰訂單、以及非農就業、JOLTS職位空缺和Challenger裁員人數等與就業市場有關的數據。

說回港股,恆指料將失守23200支持位,下一步將回補3月5日的上升裂口及考驗23000的支持。該上升裂口濶49點,介於23051和23091之間。若進行一步跌穿23000,下一支持位看22550。

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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