Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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RSI已現多頂背馳

Monday, March 24, 2025 Views626

上周恆指一如預期再圖企穩24000,可惜未竟全功。恆指在上周三最高見到24874,創逾三年高位,但周四和周五連續兩日顯著回落,24000關口得而復失,周五收報23690,相對前周下跌270點,跌幅1.1%。國指和科指按周分別下跌,三大指數都連跌兩周。滬深股市方面,中國「三頭馬車」經濟數據優於預期,加上國新辦新聞會介紹提振消費有關情況,為股市帶來利好刺激,可惜上證指數未能企穩3400,上周五收報3364,按周下跌1.6%;深成指也未能企穩11000,上周五收報10687,按周下跌2.65%。另外,3月貸款市場報價利率維持不變,符合市場預期。前期一攬子增量政策出台後,經濟景氣度上升,短期內降息的緊迫性相對有限,但展望未來,今年下調政策利率還是大方向,估計二季度降息窗口可能打開,屆時會引導LPR跟進下調。

美股上周表現波動,上周五為「三巫日」(Triple witching),道指最多曾超過500點,但美國特朗普重申對關稅將具有彈性,安撫了市場情緒,道指收市倒升32點,報41985,全個星期計升了487點,升幅超過1%。標普500指數和納指按周同升約0.5%,兩個指數都終止了連續四周的跌勢。統計數據顯示,截至3月19日的一周內,美國股票基金共計吸引了高達434億美元的資金流入,其中有341億美元都流向美股,是2025年以來最大的單周流入金額。

聯儲局一如預期維持利率不變,並將今年經濟增長預測由2.1%下調至1.7%。另一方面調高通脹預估,核心PCR通脹預期中值由2.5%上調至2.8%。聯儲局主席鮑威爾表示,對通脹預測的修正很大程度與關稅有關,但料影響屬暫時性。他又指出調查數據顯示,經濟不確定性和下行風險顯著上升,但認為經濟衰退的機率仍然相當低,整體言論仍然偏鴿。至於點陣圖則顯示,局方官員仍維景持今年利率將減半厘的預測。

上周美國沒有太多經濟數據,大致中規中矩。上周首領失業救濟金人數由前周22萬升至22.3萬,低於市場預期的22.4萬。3月費城聯儲企業展望由2月18.1跌至12.5,但仍高於市場預期的9。2月成屋銷售按月升4.2%至426萬間,高於市場預期的396萬間。本周將公布的數據包括美國第4季國內生產總值(GDP)終值、3月密歇根大學消費情緒指數終值、2月核心個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數指數、耐用品訂單、新屋銷售、標普全球製造採購經理指數初值等。

說回港股,恆指多次上破24000都未能企穩其上,9天相對強弱指數(RSI)已現多頂背馳,10天和20天移動平均線亦相繼失守,短期繼續下行機會較大,往下支持位看23200/22550,回升阻力位24000。科指也失守10天和20天線,並跌穿了前周低位5645,下一支持位5360,回升阻力位5850。

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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