Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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2277 6666

再圖企穩24000

Monday, March 17, 2025 Views687

上周評論指出,全國兩會閉幕後,政策利好或暫告一段落,市場將聚焦公司業績,估計恆指會在24000水平整固,或伺機補回上周四上升裂口的一部分。該上升裂口濶350點,介於23637和23987之間。結果恆指自上周五起連跌五天,上周四最低見到23199。周五大幅反彈近500點,收報23959,主要由於國務院新聞辦公室將於本周一下午舉行新聞發布會,介紹提振消費有關情况,令市場憧憬有提振消費國策出台。此前,國家金融監督管理總局提出發展消費金融以助力提振消費工作,指出:要增加消費金融供給,優化消費金融管理,開展個人消費貸款紓困,優化消費金融環境。不過,三大指數仍未能完全收復之前五日的跌幅(累跌907點或3.7%),恒指上周累跌271點或1.1%、國指累跌36點或0.4%、恒生科指累跌156點或2.6%。

滬深股市上周五也大幅上揚,上證指數收報3,419,漲1.81%,深證成指收報10,978,漲2.26%。中國人民銀行黨委擴大會議指出,今年將根據國內外經濟金融形勢和金融市場運行情況,擇機降準降息,為股市帶來支持。經濟數據方面,內地今年首兩個月人民幣新增貸款6.14萬億元,低於市場預期的6.38萬億元。單計2月,內地新增人民幣貸款1.01萬億元,低於預期的1.28萬億元。此外,首兩個月累計,社會融資規模增量9.29萬億元人民幣。2月社融規模增量2.23萬億元,少於預期的2.5萬億元。至於廣義貨幣供應(M2)按年增長7%,符合預期,不過,狹義貨幣供應(M1)僅按年增長0.1%。

美股在關稅戰升級和經濟衰退陰影籠罩下持續受壓,繼納指之後,標普500指數亦由歷史高位回調達一成,陷入技術調整區間。不過,美國參議院少數黨領袖、紐約州民主黨人舒默表示,不會阻止共和黨提出的一項政府撥款法案,令聯邦政府能避免停擺。加上密歇根大學3月美國消費者信心指數初值為57.9,遠低於市場預期的63.1,令市場對聯儲局年內降息預期升溫,壞消息當好消息炒,美股大幅反彈,但總結一周,道指累計跌3.1%,連跌兩星期;標普500指數及納指都跌逾2%,兩者都連跌4星期。本周有四大關注點,首先是美聯儲公開市場委員會(FOMC)將於18-19日召開,可關注主席鮑威爾針對經濟、就業、通脹、利率、關稅等議題的看法,同時留意點陣圖的變化。其次是美國經濟數據,本周將公布的數據包括2月零售銷售、工業生產、建築許可、新屋開工、進出口物價等。第三是企業業績,包含美光、FedEx、Nike等。第四是英偉達GTC大會將於17-21日舉行。英偉達行政總裁黃仁勳演講主題將鎖定人工智能(AI)代理、機器人技術與加速運算未來發展,另將首度舉辦「量子日」,聚焦量子運算現狀與未來發展。

說回港股,恆指上周五一度上破24000但未能企穩其上,本周料會再圖企穩24000,往上阻力位依次為24400和24700,回落支持位為23600。


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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