Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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2277 6666

恆指上試20500

Monday, February 3, 2025 Views1349

蛇年伊始,祝大家新年進步,萬事如意,身體健康,財源廣進。

港股走勢一如預期,恆指趁農曆新年前市況較為淡靜上破20200,上星期二最高見到20337,收報20225,相對前周上升100點,升幅0.5%,連升三周. 國指和科指按周分別上升1%和1.4%,也是連升三周。總結龍年,港股表現良好,恆指升幅高達28.3%,科指及國指各升49.9%及39.1%。滬深股市龍年表現也不差,上證指數和深成指升幅分別為13.4%和15.1%。經濟數據方面,國家統計局公布1月份製造業採購經理指數(PMI)為49.1,低於預期的50.1,並連跌兩個月,重返收縮區,主要受春節假日臨近、企業員工集中返鄉等因素影響。1月份非製造業商務活動指數為50.2,比上月下降2個百分點,雖然仍高於臨界點,但遜於預期的52.2,更創25個月來最大跌幅。

美股方面,上周可以說是多事之周,先有DeepSeek橫空出世,衝擊芯片股。英偉達(NVDA.US)上周一重挫17%,單日市值蒸發近六千億美元,創美股史上最大市值跌幅。繼而有聯儲局議息會議,一如市場預期維持利率不變,但會後聲明刪除了上次議息後有關「通脹朝目標取得進展的表述」,顯示聯儲局何時會進一步減息沒有明確立場。上周五公布的去年12個人消費開支(PCE)物價指數按年升幅從2.4%反彈至2.6%,符合預期;按月則升0.3%,亦符預期。核心PCE物價指數,按年和按月分別上升2.8%和0.2%,也都符合市場預期。

令市場有點意想不到是,美國總統特朗普宣布,自2月1日起對加拿大和墨西哥徵收25%的關稅,對中國在原來的基礎上徵收10%的關稅。他更威脅說,如果這三個國家不解決他對非法移民和毒品走私的擔憂,他就要徵收進口稅。加拿大和墨西哥均表示正在準備徵收報復性關稅。

美股上周表現反覆,道指上周五收報44544,全周升0.27% ,一個月則上升4.7%。標普500指數上周五收報6040,全周跌1%,一個月則升2.7%。納指上周五收報19627,全周跌1.64%,一個月則升1.64%。


說回港股,恆指突破20200後,料可上試20500,而家下一阻力位將為21000,此亦為去年12月10日高位,若沒有非常利好的消息,要突破21000並不容易。


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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