Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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考驗能否守穩20000

Monday, December 30, 2024 Views544

港股上周止跌回升,全賴平安夜半日市抽升,恆指重越20000大關,上周五衝高回落,最高見到20185,收報20090,相對前周上升了369點,升幅1.9%。國指和科指按周分別上升2.25%和2.1%。滬深股市上周也造好,上證指數上周五重上3400,按周升近1%;深成指按周微升0.12%。經濟數據方面,11月全國規模以上工業實現利潤按年下跌7.3%,跌幅較10月收窄2.7個百分點,表現為四個月來最好,但1-11月工業企業利潤按年跌4.7%,跌幅比首十月擴大0.4個百分點。展望後續工業企業利潤走勢,政策加力將帶動工業企業利潤修復,但內需偏弱和外需不確定性將制約工業企業利潤增長。本周二將公布12月官方製造業和非製造業採購經理指數(PMI),12月官方製造業PMI預測為50.3,與11月持平,官方非製造業PMI預測為50.2,前值為50。周四將公布財新中國製造業PMI,預测為51.6,略高於11月的51.5。

美股方面,債息上升令科技股受壓。美國十年期國債收益率升至4.619厘,創七個月高位。道指上周五曾跌逾500點,收報42992,下跌333點,但整計整個星期仍升0.4%,中止連三周跌勢。標指和納指按周分別上升0.7%和0.8%。經濟數據方面,最新一周首次申領失業救濟金人數跌至21.9萬,低於預期的22.3萬,前值為22萬。11月批發庫存初值下跌0.2%,低於預期的升0.1%,前值由升0.2%下修至升0.1%。11月零售庫存升0.3%,符合預期。本周將有較多經濟數據公布,包括成屋銷售、房價指數、標普製造業PMI、新申領失業救濟金人數、ISM製造業指數。

說回港股,恆指趁聖誕假期交投淡薄上破20000,根基並不穩固,新年假期後交投回復正常,將考驗能否企穩20000以上。

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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