Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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窄幅波動過聖誕

Monday, December 23, 2024 Views673

港股恆指於前周失守兩萬關後,上周一直未能升回其上,低位曾跌近19600,周五收報19721,相對前周下跌了250點,跌幅1.25%,結束了連續三周的升勢.國指和科指按周分別下跌0.6%和0.8%,也同樣終止了連續三周的升勢。滬深股市也表現偏軟,上證指數和深成指按周分別下跌0.7%和0.6%。人民銀行公布,12月份貸款市場報價利率(LPR)維持不變,1年期LPR保持在3.1厘;5年期以上LPR維持3.6厘,令年底前降息預期落空。市場人士預測,明年人行將更大力降息降準,逆回購利率預計將調降40至50基點,LPR利率調降幅度將在50基點以上,首次降息可能在2025年年初。

美股上周表現承壓,道指曾連跌十天,創出自1974年以來最長跌勢。聯儲局一如預期減息四分一厘,但預期2025年只降息兩次(聯儲局官員最新的點陣圖預示明年底政策利率目標範圍中位數為3.9厘,較9月時預期的3.4%為高)。聯儲局又預期明年經濟增長2.1%,高於9月時預期的2%;核心個人消費開支(PCE)物價指數預測為2.5%,高於原先預期的2.2%,估計失業率為4.3%。

上周五市場還迎來史上最大規模的「三巫日」(即個股及指數期權、指數期貨到期日,約有6.5萬億美元的期權和期貨合約到期,然而在通脹數據的支持下,加上下午傳出民主共和兩黨就短期支出法案達成初步協議避免聯邦政府停擺,帶動股市反彈,但道指全周仍跌2.3%;標普500指數和納指按周分別下跌1.8%和2%;反映中小型股的羅素2000指數按周跌4.45%,為9月初以來最大單周跌幅,因本土企業受利息成本影響較大。

經濟數據方面,美國第三季GDP增長率由2.8%上修至3.1%;11月零售銷售按月升0.7%,高於預期的0.6%,前值為0.4%;最新一周首次申領失業救濟金人數由24.2萬人降至22萬人,低於預期的23萬人;11月個人消費支出(PCE)物價指年增2.4%,低於預期的2.5%;核心PCE按年升幅維持2.8%,低於預期的2.9%;按月升0.1%,較10月0.3%升幅顯著回落,亦低於預期的0.2%。綜上數據顯示勞動市場持續紓緩,但消費支出維持強勁,且通脹受控。本周聖誕節假期,美國仍有不少經濟數據公布,包括耐用品訂單和新屋銷售,中國則將公布規模以上工業企業利潤。

說回港股,本周只有兩天半交易,估計市況將轉趨淡靜,恆指將維持於19400和20000之間窄幅波動。

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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