Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

回補上升裂口

Monday, November 18, 2024 Views676

上周評論指出,恆指前周雖曾上破21000,但未能企穩其上,料將回試20270的支持。若然失守,或將考驗20000大關。結果不幸言中,恆指上周連跌五天,上周五最低見到19332,收報19426,相對前周恆指下跌了1302點,跌幅6.3%.國指和科指按周分別下跌6.4%和7.3%。滬深股市上周亦顯著下跌,上證綜指和深證成指按周分別下跌3.5%和3.7%。特朗普勝選後,美元延續強勢,美匯指數一度升穿107水平,接近一年高位。人民幣兌美元中間價跌近7.2,創逾一年低位。此外,上周公布的中國經濟數據大部分差於預期,亦為股市帶來沽壓。其中,10月人民幣貸款只增加5000億元,比預期的7000億元為低。社會融資規模增量為1.4萬億元,較預期的1.545萬億元為少,而且兩者都較去年同期下降。貨幣供應方面,截至10月底,廣義貨幣(M2)按年增加7.5%,連升兩個月,部分受益於資本市場近期回穩,理財資金開始回流存款,而證券客戶保證金亦計入M2中。狹義貨幣(M1)下降6.1%,降幅較首九月的7.4%收窄,部分受惠市場氣氛改善,居民和企業減少動用原有存款還債。

「三頭馬車」數據一好兩壞。其中,10月社會消費品零售總額按年增長4.8%,增速比9月加快1.6個百分點,高於市場預期的3.6%。今年首十個月城鎮固定資產投資按年升3.4%,低於市場預期的3.5%,主要受首十個月房地產開發投資同比下降10.3%(預期下降9.9%)拖累。10月規模以上工業增加值按年增長5.3%,低於9月的5.4%增速,也低於預期的5.8%。

美股三大指數在上周一齊齊創出歷史新高後,開始上升乏力。道指、納指和標普500指數按周分別下跌1.2%、3.15%和2.1%。上周公布的美國經濟數據大部分都強於預期。其中,10月生產者價格指數(PPI)按年升2.4%,高於預期的2.3%,前值為1.8%。核心PPI按年升3.1%,高於預期的3%,前值為2.8%;按月升0.3%,高於預期的0.2%,前值亦為0.2%。另外,美國11月9日當周首次申領失業救濟金人數為21.7萬人,低於預期的21.7萬人,前值為22.1萬人。還有,美國10月先期零售銷售按月升0.4%,高於預期的0.3%,而前值上修至0.8%。10月進口物價指數按年升0.8%,超預期的0.3%;按月則升0.3%,超預期的下跌0.1%。加上聯儲局主席鮑威爾表示,美國經濟增長良好,就業市場穩健,通脹仍高於2%目標,聯儲局因此並不急於降息,而是應當審慎行事,為股市和債市帶來沽壓。

說回港股,恆指跌穿20000-21000波動區間後,最小量度跌幅為1000點,因此可能下試19000,補回9月27日的上升裂口。該上升裂口濶71點,介於19002和19073之間。若然反彈,預計在50天線(19850)附近會有阻力。

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
Top of Page
Contact Us
Please contact your account executive or call us now.
Research Department
Tel : (852) 2277 6846
Fax : (852) 2277 6565
Email : businessenquiry@phillip.com.hk

Enquiry & Support
Branches
The Complaint Procedures
About Us
Phillip Securities Group
Join Us
Phillip Network
Phillip Post
Phillip Channel
Latest Promotion
E-Check
Login
Investor Notes
Free Subscribe
Contact Us