Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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考驗20000大關

Monday, November 11, 2024 Views258

上周三件大事都有了定案:特朗普當選美國第47任總統;聯儲局減息四分一厘;人大常委會審議通過六萬億化債方案。恆指上周兩度上試21000,上周五最高見到21355,收市回落至20728,但相對前周仍上升了222點,升幅1.1%,結束了連續四周的跌勢。國指和科指按周分別上升1.6%和4.1%,也都結束了連續四周的跌勢。滬深股市上周顯著造好,上證綜指和深證成指按周分別上升5.5%和6.8%,兩市成交連續多日超兩萬億。經濟數據方面,財新中國10月服務業PMI回升至52,較9月升1.7個百分點,為近三個月高點,顯示服務業景氣度回升。中國10月出口同比增長12.7%,遠高於預期的5%增幅,並且較9月的2.4%增幅大幅提升。不過,很大可能是工廠趕在歐美可能加徵關稅前將庫存發往主要市場。中國10月進口同比下降2.3%,降幅超過預期的1.5%,並且逆轉了9月0.3%的增長趨勢,四個月來首度轉為負值,顯示本土需求依然疲軟。

美股在特朗普勝選後出現慶祝行情,三大指數齊創新高,道指上周五最高見到44157,收報43988,按周上升4.6%;標普500指數上周五最高見到6012,收報5995,按周上升4.7%;納指上周五最高見到19318,收報19286,按周上升5.7%。經濟數據方面,美國10月ISM非製造業指數為56,創逾2年以來新高,也高於預期的53.8,9月為54.9。截至11月2日止當周首次申領失業救濟金人數為22.1萬人,低於預期22.2萬人及前值21.8萬人。密歇根大學11月消費信心指數初值升至73,高於市場預期和10月終值的70.5,創七個月新高。經濟數據好於預期,加上聯儲局議息聲明刪除了「對通脹回到2%回標更有信心」的字眼,亦不再指通脹取得「進一步」進展,令市場揣測聯儲局減息路徑會否有變。芝商所FED
 Watch工作具顯示,12月聯儲局再減息四分一厘的機率為76.1%,而維持利率不變的機率則為23.9%。


說回港股,人大常委會記者會在上周五四時召開,除了6萬億化債方案外,沒有公布更大規模的刺激經濟政策,令市場感到失望,恆指期貨在現貨市場收市後急挫。周五恆指夜期進一步下跌,收報20265點,低水463點。技術上,恆指雖曾上破21000,但未能企穩其上,本周將回試20270的支持。若然失守,或將考驗20000大關。

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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