Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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本周三件大事

Monday, November 4, 2024 Views547

港股仍未擺脫窄幅波動的悶局,恆指上周高低波幅只有620點,最高和最低分別為20890和20270,周五收報20506,按周下跌0.4%,是連續第四周下跌。國指和科指按周分別下跌0.6%和1.2%,也是連跌四周。十月收官,恆指、國指和科指按月分別下跌3.9%、3.3%和5.3%.

上證綜指和深證成指上周分別下跌0.8%和1.5%,按月則表現分化,滬指月跌幅為1.7%,而深成指則保持上升勢頭,連續兩個月上升,升幅為0.6%。經濟數據方面,9月全國規模以上工業企業實現利潤總額按年跌27.1%,跌幅較8月的17.8%擴大,連跌兩個月,主要受有效需求不足、工業品價格下降及8月以來同期基數明顯抬高等多重因素影響。首9個月利潤由增長0.5%轉為下跌3.5%,為年內首次錄得下跌。期內,營業收入按年增長2.1%,增幅為年內最低水平;營業收入利潤率為5.27%,連續第3個月回落。不過,採購經理指數(PMI)卻見改善。10月份官方製造業PMI升至50.1,重返擴張區間,比上月升0.3個百分點,高於市場預期的49.9%。10月份財新中國製造業PMI亦重回擴張區間,較9月份回升1個百分點至50.3,高於市場預期的49.7。 10月份官方非製造業PMI和升至50.2%,按月提升0.2個百分點。連同官方和財新中國製造業PMI,反映隨著一攬子增量政策加力推出,以及已出台的存量政策效應逐步顯現,經濟景氣水平有所回升。

美股在總統大選前回吐壓力增加,道指和標普500指數連跌兩周,周跌幅分別為0.2%和1.4%;納指按周下跌1.5%,是自9月6日以來的最大單周跌幅,並且結束了連續七周的升勢。美國債收益率近期持續攀升,亦為股市帶來壓力。10年期國債收益率上周五升至4.361%,是自7月2日以來最高水平,於去七周以來共升約71基點。經濟數據方面,9月個人消費開支(PCE)物價指數按年升幅回落至2.1%,符合市場預期,按月則升0.2%,也符合預期,但核心PCE按年升2.7%,略高於預期的2.6%;按月則升0.3%,符合市場預期。就業數據方面,9月JOLTS職位空缺744.3萬份,低於預期的800萬份,相比8月下修後的786萬份下跌5.3%。10月非農就業人口新增職位急跌至1.2萬,為疫情以來最低,遠低於預期的11萬,而且8月和9月新增職位合計下修達11.2萬。加上10月ISM製造業指數跌至46.5,低於市場預期47.6及前值47.2,令市場篤定聯儲局將再減息四分一厘。

除了聯儲局議息會議外,本周影響港股的另外兩件大事分別是美國總統大選,以及人大常委會會議。恆指雖連跌四周,但周線圖的上升旗形仍未受到破壞,且看能否藉着本周三件大事呈現突破。個人觀點仍然是:如能突破21000並企穩其上,可上試21600;反之,若跌穿20270,則將下試20000。

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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